Guacamole—and all things avocado—could soon be in high demand but hard to get, according to findings from the California Farm Bureau Federation and the California Avocado Commission. The groups reported that the 2009 avocado crop could be the industry’s lightest in 20 years.
“You’d have to go back to the 1990s to see crop yields like this,” said Wayne Brydon, field services manager for the California Avocado Commission.
Avocado experts like Brydon have yet to officially estimate the total volume of pounds expected in 2009, but Brydon said it won’t be pretty.
“It’s going to be a difficult year,” he said. “There’s going to be a shortage of good-quality avocados, and we won’t have the weekly volumes that we did last year.”
Avocados grow year-round in California, but the peak of the avocado harvest is usually the months between April and August. Last year, during that period, the industry was seeing weekly volumes of approximately 10 to 12 million pounds. In 2009, Brydon said, the industry could be looking at weekly volumes of about 6 to 7 million pounds.
Why are the avocado trees being so fickle?
Brydon said it’s due to several factors, including recent freezes, water shortages, heat waves, and fires.
A hard freeze in 2007 handicapped avocado production for 2008, but that cold spell is now the least of the industry’s worries.
Over the last year, the California State Water Project has called for water use cut- backs of nearly 30 percent in Southern California counties, ranging from San Diego to Ventura.
The water shortages have led many farmers to cut some trees back to their stumps or destroy them altogether. The shortages are most prevalent in southern California, specifically San Diego County, which produces approximately 70 percent of the state’s avocados.
While such cutbacks have yet to be established in Santa Barbara County, Agricultural Commissioner Bill Gillette explained that water is still an issue.
“Most of our water comes from Lake Cachuma and well water, but the costs associated with water are always a concern,” he said, adding that as time goes on, water costs will continue to increase.
“We might be OK with water right now, but it’s going to be a problem. We’re just going to have to wait and see,” he said.
Gillette said local avocado growers and handlers are currently most concerned about recovering from damages sustained during the Gap and Tea fires.
According to county records, the fires damaged approximately 250 acres of avocado trees, affecting a total of 14 farmers.
In order to compensate those farmers for their losses, Gillette said there are some low-interest loans available through the United States Department of Agriculture.
Aid is harder to come by for avocado farmers throughout the state, whose crops sustained heavy damages during the June heat wave that kept temperatures in the upper 90s.
“That heat wave hit us when we were most vulnerable: when the little flowers were starting to blossom and the baby avocados were growing,” the California Avocado Commission’s Brydon said. “The heat wave came, and the trees dropped that crop.”
Most of the avocado crops in California are varietals from Guatemala, where the fruit thrives in more moderate temperatures.
“Our Santa Ana temperatures shocked the trees,” Brydon said. “They’re just not made to handle that kind of heat.”
The diminished crop is expected to cause problems for consumers and growers alike, shooting supermarket prices up and lowering labor wages for harvesters.
James McKeon, who owns the South Coast Organics packing company in Goleta, said the small crop will be “a problem for the packer, the grower, and eventually the consumer.”
As a result, McKeon said, a lot of farm laborers will be forced to find other work.
“You have to take every day as it comes. You can’t just go out there, add water, and make them grow,” he said, adding that freezes, fires, and heat waves are just part of the trade.
“It’s always something. It’s not an easy job,” he summed up.
On the up side, experts like Brydon are expecting the industry to bounce back quickly with a strong crop in 2010.
“Farmers are resilient,” Brydon said. “Plus, they have a great market to come back to.”
Contact Staff Writer Amy Asman at aasman@santamariasun.com.
This article appears in Dec 11-18, 2008.