This year was one of the driest in history for the Central Coast—and most of California, for that matter. In mid-November, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) labeled a large portion of California as suffering from “extreme drought.”
In a map released by the U.S. Drought Monitor, California is painted orange, which stands for “severe drought,” with a huge red splotch right over the Central Coast and San Joaquin Valley indicating “extreme drought.”
“The lack of rainfall and the [groundwater basin] deficit built over the last two to three years,” said Eric Boldt, a warning coordinator meteorologist with the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Oxnard.
Tom Fayram, Santa Barbara County’s water resources deputy director, added, “This is going to be a pivotal year in terms of water supply and surface water, especially for Cachuma Lake, which is the big [reservoir] for South County, and the State Water Project.”
Boldt said if the state doesn’t get enough rain in the next couple of months, it’s highly likely that Gov. Jerry Brown will declare a state of emergency for drought. The typical wet season runs from November through March. Boldt expects the governor to make a decision sometime in April or May.
“The declaration has to come from the governor,” he said.
So far, Boldt said, 2014 is predicated to be a “neutral” year for California, which is positioned between El Niño (above normal rainfall) and La Niña (not enough rainfall) in terms of weather conditions.
Neutral means “it could go either way,” he said, “but there is some indication that Southern California will be drier than normal this year.”
Without rain to recharge the groundwater basins and water reservoirs, he said, farmers won’t be able to use as much water for thirsty crops and cattle. Food for cattle could be a problem as well because there could be less grass available for chomping.
Claire Wineman, president of the Grower-Shipper Association of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, said members of her organization haven’t been affected by the drought as severely as other farmers because row crops require less water than grass, tree fruit, and other crops. However, she did say the lack of rainfall has had effects on the amount of irrigation water used on crops and has increased water pumping expenses.
Representatives of the Santa Barbara County Cattlemen’s Association couldn’t be reached as of press time.
The National Weather Service’s Boldt explained the main meteorological reason for California’s predicament this way: “When low pressure systems bring storms and rain [to the United States], they get cut off from the main jet stream,” he said. “It’s like getting off the exit of the freeway; once [the storm] gets to California, it loses moisture.”
Of course, there is some hope: Boldt said there have been cases of areas getting significant rainfall in just a few months, or even weeks. In 2010, Los Angeles got eight to nine inches of rain in December. It typically gets 15 inches per year.
“Weather can change its mind in a hurry,” he said. “It would be great for the entire state to get above-average rainfall.”
But Boldt said odds are there will be water restrictions in 2014—such as banning outdoor watering—though they will be very area specific.
Santa Maria’s utilities department director, Rick Sweet, said Santa Maria is actually in good shape because of the Santa Maria groundwater basin.
“I don’t think we’re going to be looking at any water restrictions here in Santa Maria. That could change over a period of time, but at this point, I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Sweet said.
However, he did mention that State Water Project deliveries could be greatly reduced.
County water resources deputy director Fayram said the Santa Ynez Valley and Lompoc get most of their water from the Santa Ynez River Groundwater Basin. According to documents from the county, Buellton, Santa Ynez, and Solvang also participate in the State Water Project; Lompoc, Vandenberg Village, and Mission Hills do not.
This article appears in Dec 12-19, 2013.