When tragedy hits a community, words like “unbelievable,” “unexpected,” and “unthinkable” get thrown around by public leaders, media, and citizens alike.
But for those of us who listen closely to experts, many of these issues aren’t unexpected at all, and in fact, they’re predictable.
Look at the recent, extensive LA Times report that charged Santa Barbara County with doing too little for too long regarding the flood basins above Montecito, and not properly clearing them before the Jan. 9, 2018, debris flows that killed 23 and destroyed more than 100 homes (page 3).
The Times quotes from an Army Corps of Engineers Colonel, who told the county in 1969 that, “The danger of loss of life and the menace of public health is great,” even after the Corps built five drainage basins. This guy saw the threat coming nearly half a century ago, why didn’t county officials?
To be fair, they did, just not until a few weeks before the debris flow, when the then-largest California wildfire raged its way into the county.
County Public Works/Flood Control Deputy Director Tom Fayram ordered the basins to be cleared as the Thomas Fire approached the mountains in December of 2017, but as the Times reports, those basins weren’t emptied anywhere near their original capacity. The county responded to the report, saying it was “inaccurate,” and that all 11 of Montecito’s debris basins were “cleared of debris and silt consistent with our basin maintenance plan.”
I’m confident that the county did a lot in the three weeks prior to the debris flows, but was it really enough? Decades of silt and rocks from regular wet seasons made those basins more shallow, basins that the Army Corps said were inadequate when they were brand new and “Crimson and Clover” was topping the charts.
This is why it’s important, now more than ever, for representatives and citizens to actually listen to the experts. This isn’t about “told you so” or playing the blame game, it’s about improving public safety for all of our sakes.
Don’t get me wrong, I was shocked like everyone else when the Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Office reported a triple homicide and officer-involved shooting at the end of the year. Sheriff’s deputies shot and killed David McNabb, a former deputy with the agency himself (see page 3), while responding to the home where he allegedly stabbed his own mother, sister, and another to death. It’s a crime so heinous that those same words, like “unthinkable,” come to mind.
But McNabb had a prior conviction for domestic violence from Ventura County, which reminded me of something from a local expert on crime and homicide.
Santa Barbara County District Attorney Joyce Dudley told the Sun in 2017 that a domestic violence conviction is one of the strongest predictors of a future killing. After a series of domestic violence murders in the county, Dudley decided to focus on domestic violence that year, convening a task force to raise awareness of the issue.
“It was the most common violent crime we have in Santa Barbara County,” Dudley said in 2017. “It was also … the most predictable homicide in Santa Barbara County. … As we know in law enforcement, if it’s predictable, it’s preventable, so why aren’t we doing more to prevent domestic violence homicides in Santa Barbara County?”
The DA’s Office and local law enforcement agencies did do more, and have made progress with raising awareness around domestic violence. But like any issue, whether it’s crime or preparing for a natural disaster, there’s always more work to be done, and sometimes all the effort you can muster just isn’t enough.
The Canary doesn’t make predictions. Send your thoughts to canary@santamariasun.com.
This article appears in Jan 3-10, 2019.
