Sometimes it seems California Democrats and Republicans are playing the coming election season like an underground card game: making bluffs, calling bluffs, and going all in. When Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger called a special election to fill a coveted Senate seat, it saddled five counties in the 15th Senate District with a multi-million dollar bill. And now local officials seem to be stuck cleaning up the mess left by Sacramento’s political poker game.
Abel Maldonado, the former Republican Senator from Santa Maria, was officially confirmed as Schwarzenegger’s next lieutenant governor on April 26. Legally, Schwarzenegger could have waited and combined the special election with the Nov. 2 general election. But then he announced there would be a special election on June 22.
SLO County Clerk-Recorder Julie Rodewald had an almost frantic look in her eyes during a recent interview. Outside her office there was a palpable sense of impending chaos. With the regular primary barely a month away and the special election just two weeks after that, pulling off both elections successfully may be nothing short of a miracle, she said.
“It’s pretty daunting,” she said. “It’s overwhelming at this point.”
According to the California State Association of Counties, the special election will cost the five counties, including Santa Barbara County, a combined $3.5 million.
Rodewald said the governor “has saddled us” with conducting back-to-back elections.
“To my knowledge this has [never] happened and so the five counties that are affected are traveling in very uncharted waters and I fear they are full of crocodiles, piranhas, and hidden obstructions,” she said.
The state is required to repay counties for special elections, but still hasn’t repaid the nearly $400,000 it owes SLO County for the May 2009 special election.
Furthermore, the tight schedule opens the door for elections officials and volunteers to make mistakes—something Rodewald is worried could lead to a challenge of the results.
Rodewald said there’s talk of carrying a bill to allow counties to hold an all-mail election or other cost-saving measures. But getting a bill written, through the Legislature, and signed by Schwarzenegger seems like another impossible task. For now, she said, they’re bracing for the worst.
Senate President pro tem Darrell Steinberg publicly called the special election a “bonehead move.” Officials from SLO, Monterey, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, and Santa Barbara counties complained an additional election was costly and unnecessary.
Republicans blamed Democrats and Democrats blamed Republicans. It’s hard to argue, however, that either party’s hands are totally clean.
Both parties stand to gain or lose a tremendous amount of leverage depending on which way Maldonado’s former seat goes. For Democrats, the 15th district is one of two necessary seats that could give the party a two-thirds majority and corresponding stranglehold on future budget votes. Such a majority would be devastating to Republicans who have historically been able to block Democratic budget proposals.
“Even as a special election you’re going to see huge sums of money and huge amounts of labor support, and business groups donating money to this election,” Cal Poly political science professor Michael Latner said.
According to Hussey and Latner, Republicans have far more to gain from an early special election. Special elections generally have low voter turnout. But voters who do turnout tend to be more conservative, political activists.
“I think the reasoning behind Schwarzenegger’s decision … is special elections have lower turnout and usually conservative voters,” Hussey said.
If history serves as any example, turnout for the special election will be abysmal. The May 2009 special election drew 28.4 percent of registered California voters, making it the lowest percentage of voter turn out in the last 100 years.
As of press time, only two candidates had indicated they would run: popular SLO Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee and Independent Jim Fitzgerald, according to the SLO County Clerk-Recorder. Former Assemblyman and Democrat John Laird announced his candidacy on May 3.
Just as Republicans stand to benefit from a low-turnout special election—especially given Blakeslee’s name recognition—Democrats would have a better shot in November.
“The Democrats would certainly love to pick up this seat,” Latner said.
But Democrats may be just as culpable of political trickery to stack the election odds in their favor. Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear pointed the blame at Democrats for hindering Maldonado’s nomination as lieutenant governor.
On Feb. 2, the Assembly voted down the Maldonado nomination. However, Schwarzenegger called the Legislature’s vote invalid and sent it back for another round. By the time the Senate cast the final vote to appoint Maldonado on April 26, it was too late to place his Senate seat on the June 8 primary.
Perhaps most odd is that both parties seem to have screwed themselves. Senate Democrats lost a favorable budget vote in Maldonado (he voted in favor of last year’s budget) by pushing him into the lieutenant governorship, and have now opened his district to a Republican-friendly special election vote. Schwarzenegger, on the other hand, may have tarnished his reputation at the end of his last term.
Colin Rigley is a staff writer for the Sun’s sister paper New Timnes in SLO. He can be reached at crigley@newtimesslo.com.
This article appears in May 5-12, 2010.