Last year’s holiday season ushered in one of the worst COVID-19 surges we’ve seen to date, with cases peaking on the Central Coast in mid-January 2021. But this year, with the advent of vaccines and the uncertainty of the Omicron variant, it’s unclear what the next big surge will look like.
Comparing this year’s COVID-19 data to last year’s, it’s clear that cases aren’t surging in the same way—at least, not yet.
In the month after Thanksgiving 2020, the case rate more than doubled in Santa Barbara County. This year, the case rate remained relatively stable, with just a slight uptick in the weeks after the holiday.
But that doesn’t mean the Central Coast is spared from a winter surge—Santa Barbara County’s cases are ticking back up, with the case rate almost doubling from Dec. 15 to 22.
“At this time, cases are lower than this time last year,” the Santa Barbara County Public Health Department told the Sun in a written statement. “However, it will be several weeks until we know the impact of the winter holidays. Given the holiday travel and gatherings, we anticipate an increase in cases, but we’re still reviewing the data and it is too early to say [if] this year will be as severe as last year.”
Another wild card is Omicron, which only recently made an appearance in SLO County. As of Dec. 28, the variant hadn’t yet been detected in Santa Barbara County.
“It is estimated from the experiences in South Africa that Omicron has a doubling rate of only two days,” SLO County Public Health Department spokesperson Michelle Shoresman told the Sun.
While vaccines greatly reduce the severity of the disease, breakthrough cases are still prevalent.
“To stay as safe as possible during this confusing time, consider testing before gathering and three to five days after a gathering, stay home if you feel sick, practice social distancing, and gather outside as weather permits, and get vaccinated or boosted if you are able and haven’t already,” Shoresman said.
Despite the increase in cases, two of Santa Barbara County’s public health-run testing locations closed. The Goleta Valley Community Center is closing Dec. 30, and a county-run testing site at Buellton closed before Christmas.
“We haven’t really seen an increase in traffic in our community testing sites over the last month or so,” Santa Barbara County EMS Systems Coordinator Matt Higgs told KEYT about why the sites closed.
Northern Santa Barbara County residents can still get tested at county-run sites at the Santa Maria Fairpark and the Lompoc Health Care Center. People can schedule a testing appointment at publichealthsbc.org/testing.
This article appears in Dec 30, 2021 – Jan 6, 2022.