Next year’s decennial census features changes to the process that some believe could affect the accuracy of its results. This could be a problem in Santa Maria and other parts of Santa Barbara County, where ensuring an accurate count is already a challenge.
For the first time since its inception in 1790, the census survey will be given online rather than through the mail. And for the first time since 1950, all census forms will potentially include a question about the respondents’ citizenship status. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to make a decision on the latter change in June.
The online format could be a barrier for those who aren’t tech savvy or have limited internet access, said Santa Barbara County Deputy CEO Dennis Bozanich.
“One of the promises of the digital census is it will help reduce the costs of processing, and maybe more people will contribute because it’s simpler to fill it out online,” Bozanich said. “But there is unequal access to the internet.”
This is true in Santa Barbara County and in Santa Maria where, respectively, almost 17 percent and 26 percent of residents didn’t have internet access in 2017, according to census data.
Additionally, the fear of deportation could prevent some people who aren’t legal U.S. residents from filling out the survey, Bozanich said.
“That’s hard to overcome—it’s about safety, economic security,” Bozanich said. “That one question is a stumbling block for participation.”
According to data from the Pew Research Center, the number of undocumented residents living in the Santa Maria-Santa Barbara area in 2016 was estimated between 35,000 to 45,000.
Bozanich said it’s important that those undocumented residents, and all other residents, are counted in 2020 because census data is used in formulas that determine how much state and federal funding local entities receive for various services, like transportation and housing.
Although Bozanich said it’s hard to quantify the amount of funding the county receives based on its census data, it’s significant. Santa Maria Public Information Officer Mark van de Kamp also couldn’t put a number on how much the city receives based on its census data because it comes in through various funds at different times of the year.
While potentially missing out on funding is an obvious concern for cities and counties, van de Kamp said an accurate count should be important to residents as well because it affects many city services.
“It’s important because it will bring much needed funding for our quality of life, for helping those who are in need of assistance, for students, seniors. This really affects everyone,” van de Kamp said.
In addition to being used in funding formulas, census data is also important to the redistricting process at every government level, Bozanich said. This includes everything from drawing district lines for City Council positions to determining the number of Congress members California has in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Even without any changes potentially muddying the process, undercounting residents has previously been an issue throughout parts of the county and most of Santa Maria.
According to a report Bozanich presented at a Santa Barbara County Association of Governments meeting in February, 11 out of the 40 census tracts with the lowest response rates to previous censuses in the county are in Santa Maria.
State data predicts the same will be true for Santa Maria in the 2020 census. California created what it calls a hard-to-count index based on 14 demographic, housing, socioeconomic variables to predict how difficult it will be to record an accurate count within specific census tracts next year. The higher the index number, the more difficult the state believes it’ll be to record an accurate count.
The highest number recorded on the state’s hard-to-count index is 136, and the statewide median is 37. The highest number recorded in Santa Maria is 102, and the median for all tracts in the city is 64.
According to Public Policy Institute of California Researcher Eric McGhee, there are numerous factors that contribute to why some residents are harder to count than others, such as race, ethnicity, and housing. He said immigrants are usually hard to count because of trust issues with the government, but this could be amplified next year because of President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and the potential citizenship question.
McGhee said personal census data can’t be shared with other government agencies or used for law enforcement purposes. However, that may not calm the anxiety and fear some people feel.
“The current administration is … more hostile to immigration than previous administrations, and that has made immigrants nervous about responding,” McGhee said. “On top of that, the citizenship question exacerbates those concerns by introducing the fear of a gotcha.”
Van de Kamp said the city believes the citizenship question and transition to a digital census could make it harder to record an accurate count of all city residents. To try to reach the city’s historically hard-to-count communities and counteract the changes to next year’s census, the city is holding two workshops on May 29 and June 5 to meet with various nonprofits that work with people in the city and other stakeholders to form an outreach plan.
Santa Barbara County is also partnering with local nonprofits and other partners through a steering committee that’s working on an outreach plan to educate county residents about the census. Bozanich said the county is in the process of finalizing this plan and will develop an implementation strategy by September.
The county’s effort is being funding by about $350,000 from the state, which is allocating a total of $90 million on outreach efforts statewide to ensure an accurate count for 2020.
Reach Staff Writer Zac Ezzone at zezzone@santamariasun.com.
This article appears in May 30 – Jun 6, 2019.
