Though it might not look like it at first glance, the recession is over in Northern Santa Barbara County.
At least that’s the diagnosis from a prominent economic forecaster, who spoke before community leaders at the Economic Conference and Business Outlook for 2010 on Nov. 17.
According to Mark Schniepp, principal for the California Economic Forecast, though the county will lag behind the national economy in 2010, the turnaround has already begun.
“We’re in the fledging early stages of recovery,” Schniepp said. “We’re seeing a sharp increase in the economic factors from which we derive our indicator indexes.”
Steady improvement can be seen in Santa Maria Valley’s housing market, Schniepp said: Homes continue to surge in value, foreclosures are dropping, and sales have reached record high levels this year.
The Santa Maria Chamber of Commerce hosted the event. Chamber president Bob Hatch said while the signs are encouraging, he remains cautiously optimistic.
“We’ve heard so much doom and gloom that maybe people are starting to think, ‘Hey there are some points that we need to be thinking about,’” Hatch said. “The indicators certainly are there, but I wouldn’t totally agree that the recession
is over.”
While the beauty of the numbers is in the eye of the beholder, Hatch said, he appreciated the presentation’s positive message.
“I think we have to break the gridlock and say it’s OK to spend, because I think that’s going to enhance the economy quite a bit,” Hatch said. “We’ve weathered the storm. We’ve still got plenty of dough to operate, and I think we’re looking toward to 2010 to really tell the tale.”
With homes more affordable now than in past years, Schniepp said the market would fully recover by spring of next year, once public fears of layoffs ebb.
He expects the job market to continue to decline into next year in the North County, with employees in the government sector the most vulnerable to layoffs. However, the increase in unemployment figures won’t mean the overall economy isn’t turning around, as they will reflect an influx of recent high-school graduates.
As of October, the jobless rate stood at 14.4 percent in Lompoc and 12.7 percent in Santa Maria. According to Schniepp, non-farming employment dropped significantly in the valley in 2009. Santa Maria lost 800 jobs, due in large part to a lack of construction. Lompoc lost 200 jobs from downsizing at Vandenberg Air Force Base and the federal correctional center.
Schniepp said the North County likely wouldn’t see any new job creation until spring or summer, after which Santa Maria will add about 1,000 jobs per year going forward to 2014.
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This article appears in Nov 19-26, 2009.