Californians who live in purple tier counties may soon be under a stay-at-home order similar to those imposed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Gov. Gavin Newsom floated the possibility at a Nov. 30 virtual press conference, though he didn’t specify exactly what would necessitate a new order. He said that alarming increases in COVID-19 hospitalizations across the state are playing a key role in public health decisions and that “deep purple tier moves” will be made in the coming days.
According to data presented at the press conference, hospitalizations in California increased by 89 percent over the last two weeks. Current projections show that hospitalization could increase two or three fold over the next month, “in the absence of making better decisions,” Newsom said.
Without “additional interventions” or “fundamental shifts in our conduct,” Newsom said, statewide intensive care unit capacity is projected to be reached by mid-December.
“If we see these trends continue, [there’s] potential for a stay-at-home order for those regions in purple, because of hospitalizations and ICUs,” Newsom said.
When the state shifted to the Blueprint for a Safer Economy reopening system, hospitalization rates were no longer considered for tier assignments. While hospitalization is one of the most accurate measures for COVID-19 spread in a community, it’s also considered a “lagging metric,” a California Department of Public Health (CDPH) representative told the Sun in an October email.
But despite it not being considered for a county’s tier assignment, “CDPH still monitors hospitalization rates and capacity as part of our response to COVID-19, particularly to ensure appropriate surge capacity at the local level,” the CDPH email stated.
“We’re not just now looking at positivity rates. We’re not now just looking at case rates. We are now looking in real time at hospitalization numbers and ICU capacity in those regions,” Newsom said on Nov. 30.
What’s perhaps most concerning about the rising hospitalization numbers is that Thanksgiving Day gatherings aren’t yet reflected, meaning the surge is likely far from reaching its peak.
“We expect to see continued increases of hospitalizations if cases continue to increase,” Santa Barbara County Public Health Department Public Information Officer Jackie Ruiz told the Sun in an email. “In the previous peak of reported cases in July, we saw hospitalizations peak about three weeks after. Cases related to Thanksgiving likely won’t be seen in our data for a couple of weeks.”
Dr. Lynn Fitzgibbons, Cottage Health’s infectious disease specialist, told the Sun that a person infected on Thanksgiving Day would “likely to develop symptoms early this week, then hopefully quickly get tested and receive their results by the middle of this week.”
“The new daily cases we see through this week will tell us a lot about the impact the holiday has had on the already worsening surge,” Fitzgibbons added.
On Nov. 10, Santa Barbara County had nine COVID-19 patients hospitalized, the lowest it had seen since March. On Nov. 30, Santa Barbara County had 33 COVID-19 patients hospitalized, including seven in the ICU. The last time that many people were hospitalized was in mid-September, when the county was coming down from its late July to early August peak.
Public Health Director Dr. Van Do-Reynoso said in a Nov. 18 email that people still have the power to slow the spread with simple actions.
“We have the ability to contain the widespread disease transmission if we wear our mask, maintain at least 6 feet distance, wash our hands frequently, and stop gathering with people who are not in our household,” she wrote. “If everyone can be diligent in doing these tools, we will see the decrease in cases.”
This article appears in Dec 3-10, 2020.
