It’s not over until it’s over.
That’s what we keep learning from the Democratic presidential primary. Bernie Sanders—the democratic socialist, millennial favorite, and underdog—takes on Hillary Clinton, the “establishment candidate,” superdelegate magnet, and consistent frontrunner. With the Republican primary all but decided, the spotlight is on the Democratic camp.
At first glance, the primary polls reveal a seemingly obvious candidate, but this race isn’t finished. Sanders has vowed to stay in the race until the last vote is cast.
Even though California’s primary is late in the game, it could still prove to be very influential, according Cal Poly political science professor Michael Latner, who also spent five years working as a pollster.
There are still 936 delegates unclaimed in the Democratic primary process—475 of them from California. The state’s June 7 primary could either secure Clinton’s nomination, or set the path for an upset.
But Sanders supporters shouldn’t get their hopes up just yet. Aggregated polling data for California at the end of April suggests that Clinton is still ahead by nearly 10 points.
Yet, political ideologies in California are as diverse as the state is big, and both Clinton and Sanders have their pockets of supporters.
The Sun interviewed two local university professors to get their take on how the candidates would do in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties as well as throughout the rest of the Golden State.
Sanders should expect to do well in the Bay Area and the more progressive parts of the state, Latner said. There are also the Republican areas with a “distinct libertarian bent” to them—the Central Valley, parts of Southern California, and Northern California—where Latner expects voters to welcome Sanders’ populist narrative.
In the Los Angeles area, where Latner said there’s a more ethnic-based and working-class foundation of the Democratic party, he expects Clinton to do better.
UCSB political science professor Leah Stokes agrees. She expects Clinton to do well among Latinos and senior citizens, groups that hold significant populations in Santa Barbara County.
Stokes, who researches energy and environmental politics in the U.S., said Sanders tends to do well in states with large working-class populations and where people have lost a lot of manufacturing jobs, which doesn’t entirely describe this state.
“Those dynamics don’t hold very well in California,” Stokes said. “California is not a Rust Belt state.”
As in Silicon Valley, Stokes said Sanders won’t do well in Santa Barbara County’s tech sector because his inequality policy agenda isn’t exactly the highest priority in this industry.
Then there are student voters, from whom Stokes has observed a lot of support for Sanders, although she questions actual turnout considering the primary falls at a time when many students are either graduating or moving out of state.
And No Party Preference voters—what should we expect from them? Stokes doubts they’ll affect the primary more than the general direction.
As for SLO County, Latner considers it a bellwether, where distribution of the vote will look like the rest of the state.
In terms of delegates, Sanders has 1,433 pledged delegates and 40 superdelegates to Clinton’s 1,716 pledged delegates and 524 superdelegates.
Will a Sanders win or a close loss cause an exodus of superdelegates from the Clinton camp? It’s unlikely, according to Stokes.
“He’d need to win all of California by an insane margin of 30 percent, which doesn’t seem realistic,” Stokes said.
Neither of the professors thinks Sanders will win in California, although Latner said it could be a close race.
With Sanders attracting tens of thousands of supporters in Sacramento on May 9, it’s easy to question the popularity of each candidate in California. Even if Sanders doesn’t win here, Latner said the support he receives in the state could at least help shape the Democratic convention.
“I think one interesting question is, if it’s mathematically impossible to win in California, then why is he running in California?” Latner asked.
Time to register
The deadline to register for California’s primary is May 23. You can register in one of three ways:
- • In person at any Santa Barbara County Elections Office located at 4440-A Calle Real in Santa Barbara; 511 E. Lakeside Parkway, suite 134, in Santa Maria; 401 E. Cypress St., room 102, in Lompoc.
- • Call (800) 722-8683 to request a voter registration card be mailed to you.
- • Complete an online voter registration application at registertovote.ca.gov, which requires a driver’s license or ID number, date of birth, and last four digits of your Social Security number.
If you’re unaffiliated with a political party but are trying to vote Democratic, you must indicate “No Party Preference” on the registration form and request a Democratic ballot to be mailed to you.
Staff Writers Brenna Swanston and David Minsky can be reached at bswanston@santamariasun.com and dminsky@santamariasun.com.
This article appears in May 19-26, 2016.
